China's Steel Consumption Growth Rate Is Unsustainable

摘要

Since the start of this decade Chinese steel production and consumption has been growing in annual increments of about 20 percent. From 123 million tonnes in 1999, the country's crude steel output rose to about 180 million tonnes last year and is likely to hit at least 210 million tonnes in 2003 - a rise of more than 70 percent in four years. At the same time, the country is continuing to import tens of millions of tonnes of steel, providing a market for excess production in many other countries. No surprise, therefore, that the chief topic of speculation in the global steel sector is how long the Chinese boom will last. Now well into its fourth year, will it go into a fifth? Or a sixth? Or a tenth?