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Steel: Opportunities in Crisis

机译:钢铁:危机中的机遇

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Steel industry is in the midst of its most severe shakeout in history, and there is going to be very rough times for the steel industry at least through 2010, and hopefully in 2011 it starts to get somewhat better. This year we're having what is called shakeout, with prices dropping to death spiral levels. That means the marginal cost of the mills that make flat rolled steel and hot rolled band with next year conditions maybe a little better, and hopefully in 2011 there'll be some improvement but nothing like what it was before. And then the global economy will begin to expand at perhaps a slower rate than before from a base level of steel demand much reduced. Now, even though we're having difficult times in the steel industry, you still must expect steel price volatility. In my opinion, within a month it's possible there could be a technical rally of steel prices of hot rolled band on the world market. When thinking about the steel industry, you must expect the unexpected. It's a wild card environment. You're going to have surprises in raw material prices, with costs, with merger activity, merger and acquisition activity and with what's happening in China. Hopefully, there's a happy surprise in oil prices for the Middle East. Oil is a commodity, and just perhaps if the price goes higher, that would be a very good thing for the Middle East region and would stimulate steel demand. So let me give some more specific items.
机译:钢铁行业正处于其历史上最严峻的变革之中,至少在2010年之前,钢铁行业将处于非常艰难的时期,并希望在2011年开始有所好转。今年,我们正进行所谓的“淘汰行动”,价格下降到死亡螺旋的水平。这意味着在明年条件下生产扁钢和热轧带钢的钢厂的边际成本可能会好一些,并希望在2011年会有一些改善,但没有以前的改善。然后,由于钢铁需求的基本水平大大降低,全球经济可能会开始以比以前慢的速度增长。现在,即使我们在钢铁行业处于困难时期,您仍然必须期待钢铁价格的波动。我认为,在一个月内,世界市场上的热轧带钢价格可能会出现技术性反弹。在考虑钢铁行业时,您必须料想不到意外。这是一个通配符环境。您将在原材料价格,成本,并购活动,并购活动以及中国境内发生的事情上感到意外。希望中东的石油价格有惊喜。石油是一种商品,也许如果价格上涨,那对中东地区将是一件好事,并将刺激钢铁需求。因此,让我给出一些更具体的项目。

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    《Arab Steel》 |2009年第401期|共3页
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  • 中图分类 冶金工业;
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