Opec’s move to defend market share in the lower oil price environment will allow it to increase capacity by only 200,000 b/d each year to 2020, IEA figures show. Opec in November opted to stick to its production target of 30mn b/d, despite falling oil prices. Demand for Opec crude is likely to start increasing next year, rising to 32.1mn b/d in 2020, as spending cuts dent non-Opec output growth, the IEA says in its latest Medium-Term Oil Market Report (MTOMR). It brought forward the report’s release after publishing the previous edition in June last year (AGM, 20 June, p4). The IEA puts Opec crude capacity at 36.2mn b/d in 2020, and global capacity at 103mn b/d (see table, below).
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