A blowout year

摘要

Oil markets are not yet in balance, even if prices have stabilised over the past three weeks. North Sea Dated has steadied at around $60/bl since mid-February, with WTI trailing $10/bl behind. But supply is still projected to outpace demand by roughly 2mn b/d in the first half of this year. And even when production and consumption align more closely, there is a wide array of levers acting on the marginal economics of supply. Projecting a balancing price is a highly hazardous undertaking. Such uncertainty is fertile ground for trading firms.