The crude price variations of the last five years might be compared to the movements of a ball bouncing in an elevator. At regular intervals, a new high is reached, setting a record soon to be broken in turn. For each "bounce", we might try to identify the conjunctural reasons responsible for pushing prices upwards, but there is always another new high, because the elevator has not finished going up. The price of US100/bbl was reached "by accident" at the beginning of 2008. Prices will stay high in future, and this record will inevitably be left behind for good in the next few years. Supply, limited in its nature, is inadequate in the face of needs infinite in their desires. This has placed the crude price on a growth path whose direction could only be changed, it would seem, by massive development of replacement fuels or very large gains in energy efficiency. That is, unless the world economy were hit by a major economic crisis...
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