Oil Price Trends Through 2004-2010

摘要

Recent headline data from the OECD's IEA,the US EIA,and data from leading oil analysts concerning world production and inventory stockbuild in key consumer countries,together with'traditional'claims by certain analysts that OPEC is still able to'overproduce',is taken by some commentators as offering a prospect for oil prices sliding below current,rising price levels in the region of about 36-45 Euro/barrel(45-55 USD/bbl),perhaps by mid-2005.Optimism regarding nonOPEC supply growth is however muted at this time,with the only major upturn to counter nonOPEC production decline by its three largest OECD producers(USA,Norway,UK)coming in the shape of Azerbaijan-Turkey pipeline deliveries from Caspian region producers.Deliveries are slated to build to not much above,and probably less than 2.5 Million barrels/day(Mbd)from Spring 2005.World demand growth remains very strong-at about 3%/year or 2.5 Mbd per year-with exceptional growth being recorded not only in the emerging industrial superpowers of China and India,but also in East Europe,USA and West Asia.