Simulation of the long term fate of water and pollutants, transported from the Dardanelles plume into the North Aegean Sea

摘要

A numerical simulation of the surface buoyant plume that is formed from the Black Sea brackish water discharge into the North Aegean Sea, through the Dardanelles Straits, has been performed using the ELCOM hydrodynamic model after validation with available field and remote sensing data. Important climatological factors, such as air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, wind direction, solar radi ation, atmospheric pressure and rainfall that affect the water circulation in North Aegean as well as the Coriolis force effect, are taken into account. The seasonal characteristics of the water circulation in the North Aegean are examined using a horizontal grid resolution of 4 km by 4 km. The salinity, the water temperature and discharge from the Dardanelles straits are taken to be seasonally varied. The simulation was conducted for a total flow time of 6 years. According to the authors best knowledge the present paper constitutes the first numerical modeling attempt in the literature that apart from the long-term hydro-dynamic characteristics that have also been studied in previous works, suitable tracers are introduced in order to predict the long term fate and distribution of pollutants that are transported from the Black sea into the North Aegean. The overall results of the present investigation indicate that a substantial per centage of pollutants originating from the Black Sea, accumulate in the North part of the Aegean Sea. The Black Sea Pollutant (BSP) concentration in the North Aegean surface waters reaches relatively high values (20-34%) of its initial assumed value (100%) at the Dardanelles exit to the North Aegean, in a relatively short period of 6 years. Even at 500 m depth the BSP accumulation is more than 5% of its initial value.