War, inflation and Covid-19: the three horsemen of recession

摘要

The events of the first few months of 2022 have shaken the global economy and the path of recovery doesn't look easy. Each of the three largest economies now face a serious risk that could potentially push them into recession: - For Europe, the greatest risk is the fall-out from the Ukraine war, particularly the potential impact on energy markets. - In China, a resurgence in Covid-19 which has led to highly disruptive lockdowns across many major cities poses the biggest threat to growth. - In the US, the key question is whether the Fed can bring inflation under control without triggering a recession.