Fatal Mix Managers and Wishful Thinking

摘要

When will the euro collapse? Where will the next nuclear power plant explode? Journalists are perpetual pessimists: The world is one huge catastrophe and everything will continue to get worse. The media follow a strange business model. The typical newspaper reader is just the opposite-fundamentally optimistic-which is not any more beneficial. Excessive optimism in business can deceive managers' expectations of future developments, their planning, and ultimately their decision making. While optimism can be a motivator and not necessarily a foolish one, there is small but fundamental difference that you may miss: Whether or not decision makers have an influence on the outcome of the event they forecast.