Forecast evaluation of the coronal mass ejection (CME) geoeffectiveness using halo CMEs from 1997 to 2003

摘要

In this study we have made a forecast evaluation of geoeffective coronal mass ejections (CMEs) by using frontside halo CMEs and the magnetospheric ring current index, Dst. This is the first time, to our knowledge, that an attempt has been made to construct contingency tables depending on the geoeffectiveness criteria as well as to estimate the probability of CME geoeffectiveness depending on CME location and/or speed. For this, we consider 7742 CMEs observed by SOHO/LASCO and select 305 frontside halo CMEs with their locational information from 1997 to 2003 using SOHO/EIT images and GOES data. To select CME-geomagnetic storm (Dst 400 km s?1) are estimated to be larger than 80% but their FARs are about 60%; (3) the most probable areas (or coverage combinations) whose geoeffectiveness fraction is larger than the mean probability (～40%), are 0° 800 km s?1); (4) when the most probable area is adopted as the new criteria, the PODy becomes slightly lower, but all other statistical parameters such as FAR and bias are significantly improved. Our results can give us some criteria to select geoeffective CMEs with the probability of geoeffectiveness depending on the location, speed, and their combination.