Estimating the impact of COVID-19 on South Asia's exports: does trade facilitation matter now more than ever?

摘要

The COVID-19 has posed a real threat to global trade as the forecast shows an unprecedented decline of trade in 2020. In such a situation, trade facilitation (TF) has been considered as an effective strategy to revive trade. However, primary questionsemerge - what extent pandemic would affect exports and how much improvement in TF is needed for recovery. The present study endeavours to answer these questions, especially for South Asia. Using augmented gravity model, study finds negative impact of COVID-19 on exports. Based on coefficient estimates, study predicts decline in South Asian economies' export and finds Nepal the most and India the least affected by pandemic. The study also predicts improvement in TF required for all South Asian countriesfor resilient recovery of their exports. The study extends further by predicting the reduction in other TF measures like costs and time to export to deal with emerging trade challenges.