Freight rates set for greater predictability - heading down?

摘要

The shipping market nearly always has a surprise in store. This has certainly been the case over the last two years, but maybe in the short term, at least, the future is looking a little more predictable. Before looking forward it would be beneficial to remind ourselves of the pattern of the last few years. Dry bulk shipping markets have always been a rollercoaster ride as owners tried to plan their replacement and expansion programmes against a market demand for cargo movements that are less easily forecast. Significant movements such as grain are very weather dependent, whilst other commodities are susceptible to the general health of the world economy. So whilst it is possible to determine long term averages that are representative of the market, the volatility surrounding that average would typically see the rates oscillating by as much as 25 per cent above and below the average.