Keeping the lid on mining costs

摘要

Much has been made of the bottlenecks in Australia's coal chain being the main constraint on exports but the situation is expected to improve markedly over the next five years. Private industry watchdog Energy Economics recently announced Australia's east coast port capacity would increase from its current 260mt to 360mt by 2010. As new projects are committed and the furore over infrastructure dies down, analysts are beginning to focus on longer term trends, in particular whether current prices are sustainable. Opinion is divided on whether extant prices reflect the peak of a normal commodity cycle or whether China has shifted the paradigm and the market has entered a new period where the long average will be significantly higher. Australian miners are more cautious than share market analysts, some of whom have priced significantly higher commodity prices into share price -targets for Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton.