Russian prices touch new lows

摘要

Prices for Russian thermal coal exported to west Europe have nearly halved in the past seven months, reaching two- and-a-half year lows and moving below producers’ breakeven point. The decline reflects weak power sector demand and high inventories at northeast European ports. And there is much price uncertainty ahead, market participants say. European-delivered prices started to decline in October last year — having touched just above $100/t on a cif Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) basis for NAR 6,000 kcal/kg material — as ARA stocks began to build. Coal prices in the ARA hub fell to $51.72/, a 33-month low, before bouncing back by around $10/t to $61.72/t by the end of last week, according to Argus assessments (see graph).