A RECKONING FOR GLOBAL OIL MARKETS

摘要

MID-MARCH MARKED THE decisive inflection point for markets in terms of recognising the scale of the looming surplus as major countries across Europe and North America shut down. Our latest estimates for global liquids demand point to a year-on-year contraction in the second quarter of 2020 of more than 14 mn bpd. With supply on its current trajectory, this sets up implied global liquids builds of more than 12mn bpd in the second quarter. Markets have started to translate this dire outlook into prices. More worrisome still, low prices still appear unlikely to garner the type of immediate supply response physical markets will require in the short term, pointing to further downside in the short term.