Prioritizing Influential Factors for Freeway Incident Clearance Time Prediction Using the Gradient Boosting Decision Trees Method

摘要

Identifying and quantifying the influential factors on incident clearance time can benefit incident management for accident causal analysis and prediction, and consequently mitigate the impact of non-recurrent congestion. Traditional incident clearance time studies rely on either statistical models with rigorous assumptions or artificial intelligence (AI) approaches with poor interpretability. This paper proposes a novel method, gradient boosting decision trees (GBDTs), to predict the nonlinear and imbalanced incident clearance time based on different types of explanatory variables. The GBDT inherits both the advantages of statistical models and AI approaches, and can identify the complex and nonlinear relationship while computing the relative importance among variables. One-year crash data from Washington state, USA, incident tracking system are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of GBDT method. Based on the distribution of incident clearance time, two groups are categorized for prediction with a 15-min threshold. A comparative study confirms that the GBDT method is significantly superior to other algorithms for incidents with both short and long clearance times. In addition, incident response time is found to be the greatest contributor to short clearance time with more than 41% relative importance, while traffic volume generates the second greatest impact on incident clearance time with relative importance of 27.34% and 19.56%, respectively.