A non-parametric method for determining epidemiological reproduction numbers

摘要

In the spreading of infectious diseases, an important number to determine is how many other people will be infected on average by anyone who has become infected themselves. This is known as the reproduction number. This paper describes a non-parametric inverse method for extracting the full transfer function of infection, of which the reproduction number is the integral. The method is demonstrated by applying it to the timeline of hospitalisation admissions for covid-19 in the Netherlands up to May 20 2020, which is publicly available from the site of the Dutch National Institute of Public Health and the Environment (rivm.nl).