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Exciting statistics': the rapid development and promising future of hierarchical models for population ecology

机译:令人兴奋的统计资料:人口生态等级模型的快速发展和有希望的未来

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摘要

Many biologists might indeed ?nd statistics dull or even terrifying (van Emden, 2008), but ecologists and wildlife biologists should be downright ecstatic with recent developments in statistical modeling. One of the most exciting advances in recent decades is the development of hierarchical models. Hierarchical or multi-level models are becoming increasingly common in population analysis, and with good reason. Indeed, Kéry & Schaub (2011) devote much of their ?nal chapter to the ‘Power and Beauty of Hierarchical Models’, and among the many virtues they list for hierarchical models are simpler ?tting of complex models, clarity of thinking about these models and a ‘step-up’ approach to model building (Kéry & Schaub, 2011). Simpler and clearer model construction is an important advantage of hierarchical models, and although this may be reason enough to choose a hierarchical approach to modeling ecological data, the bene?ts do not stop with the ?tting of the model to data.
机译:许多生物学家的确可能发现统计数字枯燥甚至令人恐惧(van Emden,2008),但是生态学家和野生生物生物学家应该对统计模型的最新发展充满狂喜。最近几十年来最令人激动的进步之一就是层次模型的发展。在人口分析中,分层或多级模型正变得越来越普遍,这是有充分理由的。确实,Kéry&Schaub(2011)在其最后一章中专门介绍了“层次模型的力量和美”,他们为层次模型列出的许多优点中,更简单的是复杂模型的拟合,对这些模型的清晰思考以及“逐步”建立模型的方式(Kéry&Schaub,2011)。简化和清晰的模型构建是层次模型的重要优势,尽管这可能足以选择分层方法来对生态数据进行建模,但好处并不仅仅在于将模型拟合到数据上。

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