Spot Cargo Markets — Mixed Messages

摘要

US crude futures briefly went above $50 per barrel on Jul. 31 — for the first time in almost 10 weeks — before reports of higher Opec production abruptly ended a six-day price rally in oil markets. Preliminary data from JFI’s sister publication Oil Market Intelligence show Opec compliance at a dismal 47% in July when Libya and Nigeria are included, down from a perfect 100% for the other 12 members of the producer group. International pricing benchmark Brent closed at $52.01/bbl Thursday, up 52￠/bbl on the week, while US price-pin WTI settled at $49.03/bbl, down just 1￠/bbl. Record-high US gasoline demand and more moderate domestic crude output failed to support the US contract. New front-month October Brent futures came within a whisker of second-month November Thursday with the international pricing benchmark on the verge of becoming backwardated — where prompt oil is at a premium to forward — for the first time in years. Backwardation would send a major financial signal that global oil markets are finally starting to tighten, although there remain major concerns about rising output in the second half of the year. Europe’s key gasoil futures contract is meanwhile already backwardated after a fire at the region’s biggest refinery last weekend sparked heavy buying. Front month August ICE low-sulfur gasoil futures settled $1 per metric ton over second month September on Thursday, up from a 25￠/ton discount the previous week.