Predicting individual tree mortality in northern hardwood stands under uneven-aged management in southern Quebec, Canada

摘要

This study proposes a generalized linear mixed model to predict individual tree mortality in northern hardwood stands under uneven-aged management in Quebec, Canada. The model is based on a complementary log-log (CLL) link function, and was calibrated using permanent-plot data. Tree vigour, stem product, diameter at breast height and stand basal area were tested as explanatory variables. A plot and an interval random effect were specified to account for spatial correlations. When compared with the traditional logit link function, the CLL facilitates the inclusion of the time factor. In this case study, there was an important variability of mortality predictions between the plots and the intervals for a given plot. The interval random effect is thought to be associated with catastrophic mortality. Since both tree vigour and stem product proved to be significant mortality predictors, we recommend that these variables be evaluated to increase the accuracy of mortality models.