Final size of a multi-group SIR epidemic model: Irreducible and non-irreducible modes of transmission

摘要

A model of an epidemic outbreak incorporating multiple subgroups of susceptible and infected individuals is investigated. The asymptotic behavior of the model is analyzed and it is proved that the infected classes all converge to 0. A computational algorithm is developed for the cumulative final size of infected individuals over the course of the epidemic. The results are applied to the SARS epidemic in Singapore in 2003, where it is shown that the two-peak evolution of the infected population can be attributed to a two-group formulation of transmission.