Classification of China's county administrative units based on carbon emissions from energy consumption and economic indicators

摘要

The main anthropogenic cause of global warming is the emission of CO2. China is one of the biggest emitters with vast territory, and there are significant differences in population size, industrial structure and economic development among county administrative units, leading to large differences in energy consumption and associated carbon emissions. The comprehensive classification of counties based on economic development and carbon emission can provide a basis for targeted emission reduction measures. Using the energy consumption method combined with allocation by population density, this paper estimated the carbon emissions of China's 2,170 county administrative units in 2015. Then, we used cluster analysis to classify county units, obtaining 12 types. At this stage, the most common type in city municipal districts is low carbon emission-relatively low GDP, with medium emission intensity, while most county-level cities and counties belong to the low carbon emission-low GDP category with relatively high emission intensity. Then, five development paths were obtained by the linear fitting. Counties with extremely high carbon emission intensity may show a reduction in emission intensity and an increase in economic level. Regarding counties with relatively low emission intensity, there are two different paths in future economic development.