Weather conditions explain reproductive success and advancement of the breeding season in Western Capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus)

摘要

Climate change and associated changes in weather patterns have globally widespread effects on natural systems. Shifts in phenology can affect the reproductive success of birds by causing a mismatch between the onset of breeding and favourable conditions for reproduction, such as a peak in food availability. Weather conditions and their changes have also long been discussed as affecting the reproductive success of grouse (Tetraoninae) and contributing to rapid declines in many central European populations. We monitored the reproductive success of Western Capercaillie Tetrao urogallus in the Black Forest, Germany, over a 14-year period to study how weather conditions correlated to reproductive success and to assess whether changing environmental conditions were related to a seasonal shift in reproduction. We observed a temporal shift in peak lekking activity from late to mid-April, which corresponds to an advance of 0.65 days/year. Furthermore, we show that warm conditions during the reproductive season were positively associated with reproductive success (i.e. larger brood size, more hens with chicks and more chicks per hen) and that precipitation volume during the early weeks after hatching was negatively correlated with brood size. Precipitation before copulation (i.e. peak of lekking) affected the proportion of hens with chicks and the number of chicks per hen. Sex ratio in broods was also affected by weather conditions, with more female than male chicks in years with low temperatures and high precipitation. By analysing spring weather predictions for the period 2020-2039, we found that weather conditions during the reproductive period remained constant when assuming a continued advancement of reproduction onset, although annual variation was high. We show the importance of weather conditions in influencing Western Capercaillie reproductive success. Western Capercaillie in the Black Forest seem to adjust the timing of reproduction according to changes in weather conditions, but this advancement is unlikely to be limitless, making the future impact of climate change on the species uncertain.