An empirical analysis of the electricity demand & supply structure in hokkaido III: an exploratory data analysis

摘要

Continued from the preceding report I, II, this one mainly presents the results of time series analysis of the electricity supply in Hokkaido following one-step ahead forecasts obtained by the Kalman filtering. The applied time series models are the Box-Jenkins type SARIMA & SARIMAXs. The variables used as regressors are the electricity demands, the generation of independent power plants and the meteorological observations. The last ones are used in the analysis of the hydroelectricity - Finally, a summary model of describing the electricity demand & supply structure is demonstrated as a SARIMAX one. The data used in this research are about 10 monthly time series for past 12 years extracted from Hokkaido Trades & Industries Almanacs 1989-2000.