The dynamic compound multi-sector multiplier effects of a subsidy for forest owners on the national income.

摘要

The dynamic compound multi-sector multiplier effects on the national income of a subsidy for forest owners, which is necessary to maximize the social welfare function [defined as a function of the public utility of forests and the national income] by prolonging the rotation, are considered using a theoretical treatment. The multiplier effects were calculated dynamically using a difference equation that equates the total supply of each item in a year to the total demand for that item in the preceding year. The amount of forestry products in each year was estimated from the volume of wood produced when the change of rotation was completed in the same time as the original rotation. This estimated value was used each year in the difference equation asan externally decided value. The following conclusions were drawn. The multiplier effects under a balanced budget are equal when the government purchases a constant amount of forestry products each year when subsidies are granted and about half of themare used, provided that the negative multiplier effects of reduced production by the forestry sector are not taken into account. These multipliers converge at about 90% of the value of each steady state after 16-20. The negative multiplier effect of taxation is roughly 5-23 times greater than the effect of reduced production by the forestry sector if these effects are taken into account.