The Predictability of Seismicity: Bezymyannyi Volcano

摘要

This paper presents results from the estimation of predictability for the seismicity of Bezymyannyi Volcano based on data from the catalog of P.I. Tokarev (1955-1970) containing earthquakes in the Northern Volcanic Cluster area, Kamchatka (1971-1996, 1999-2013) and my processing of volcanic tremor during the eruptions of 1981-1986. The mathematical model is a second-order nonlinear differential equation; the optimization algorithms and estimates of predictability are the author's own. The variations of seismicity correspond with changes in volcanic activity. The predicted seismicity increase dominated by hyperbolic tendencies is found before nearly all peaks of the volcano's activity. Similar tendencies can also be identified in the post-culmination decay. These results demonstrate that seismicity can be predicted and can be used in the prediction of volcanic activity.