Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Barge Impacts on Hurricane Floodwalls

摘要

Hurricanes produce high winds and heavy precipitation, causing widespread damage to infrastructure in coastal areas. Throughout low-lying coastal cities such as New Orleans, Louisiana, a network of constructed waterway systems is maintained to mitigate flooding effects during hurricane events. However, for any waterway vessels (e.g., barges) located within the waterway network, hurricane winds and storm surges can propel the vessels into nearby protection structures. In the event that such impacts lead to failure (localized breaches or overturning), catastrophic flooding can occur to the surrounding area. Presented in this paper is a framework for assessing the risk associated with barge impacts on floodwall protection structures. Components of the framework bring together findings from forensic, experimental, and numerical modeling investigations, which collectively allow for both probability of failure and consequence of failure assessments. Use of the framework is demonstrated for critical floodwall infrastructure located throughout New Orleans, leading to recommendations for improved design of hurricane and storm damage risk reduction systems.