Psychological Biases and Economic Expectations: Evidence on Industry Experts

摘要

This article investigates possible psychological biases concerning the expectations of firm representatives (experts) using a survey of 30 industrial sectors in Brazil during the 1999Q3 through 2009Q4 period. The econometric approach builds on the work of Bovi (2009) by considering the significance of discrepancies between ex-post evaluations and ex-ante expectations. We extend the analysis by highlighting sectoral evidence from industry experts instead of aggregate evidence from lay people. The evidence, in the case of perceptions of general economic conditions, indicates the presence of important psychological biases on experts' expectations, even when they have the incentive to collect costly information.