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Elasticity Optimism

机译:弹性乐观

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摘要

On average, estimates of trade elasticities are smaller in aggregate data than at sector level. This is an artifact of aggregation. Estimations performed on aggregate data constrain sector elasticities to homogeneity, which creates a heterogeneity bias. The paper shows such a bias exists in two prominent approaches used to estimate elasticities, which has meaningful consequences for the calibration of the trade elasticity in one-sector, aggregative models. With elasticities calibrated to aggregate data, macroeconomic models can have predictions at odds with the implications of their multi-sector counterparts. They do not when elasticities are calibrated using a weighted average of sector elasticities.
机译:平均而言,总体数据中贸易弹性的估计要比行业水平小。这是聚合的产物。对汇总数据进行的估计将扇区弹性限制为同质,从而产生异质性偏差。本文表明,在两种用于估计弹性的突出方法中都存在这种偏差,这对一部门汇总模型中贸易弹性的校准具有有意义的影响。通过对弹性进行校准以汇总数据,宏观经济模型的预测可能与多部门对应模型的含义不一致。使用扇形弹性的加权平均值校准弹性时,它们不会。

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