A framework integrating physiology, dispersal and land-use to project species ranges under climate change

摘要

To study the potential effects of climate change on species, one of the most popular approaches are species distribution models (SDMs). However, they usually fail to consider important species-specific biological traits, such as species' physiological capacities or dispersal ability. Furthermore, there is consensus that climate change does not influence species distributions in isolation, but together with other anthropogenic impacts such as land-use change, even though studies investigating the relative impacts of different threats on species and their geographic ranges are still rare. Here we propose a novel integrative approach which produces refined future range projections by combining SDMs based on distribution, climate, and physiological tolerance data with empirical data on dispersal ability as well as current and future land-use. Range projections based on different combinations of these factors show strong variation in projected range size for our study species Emberiza hortulana. Using climate and physiological data alone, strong range gains are projected. However, when we account for land-use change and dispersal ability, future range-gain may even turn into a future range loss. Our study highlights the importance of accounting for biological traits and processes in species distribution models and of considering the additive effects of climate and land-use change to achieve more reliable range projections. Furthermore, with our approach we present a new tool to assess species' vulnerability to climate change which can be easily applied to multiple species.