The impact of different historical typhoon tracks on storm surge: A case study of Zhejiang, China

摘要

A typhoon-induced storm surge simulation system was developed for the Zhejiang coast consisting of an assimilation wind-pressure model and the ADCIRC + SWAN model. The simulated peak and phase of the storm surge were found to match the observed data very well. We discussed the sensitivity of the modeled storm surge to changes in the computational domain, and compared the simulation results from the assimilation windpressure model and the symmetric Holland model. The sensitivity of 23 newly-constructed typhoon tracks to the Wenzhou City storm surge was investigated using the validated storm surge simulation system. The storm surges vary significantly when the typhoon tracks are at different positions relative to the station. Given this, the impacts of 55 historical tracks from 1951 to 2017 on the coast of Zhejiang Province were simulated and analyzed. Although the typhoon tracks with no landfall on China's eastern mainland posed a threat to the entire Zhejiang coast, the tracks making landfall at Fujian were most likely to cause a storm surge in Wenzhou City, Zhejiang Province. The results of this study will help to increase the understanding of typhoon storm surge along China's coastal areas and may serve as reference material in studies of disaster reduction and prevention techniques in the Zhejiang region.