A Model Ensemble for Projecting Multidecadal Coastal Cliff Retreat During the 21st Century

Limber Patrick W.; Barnard Patrick L.; Vitousek Sean; Erikson Li H.

摘要

Abstract >Sea cliff retreat rates are expected to accelerate with rising sea levels during the 21st century. Here we develop an approach for a multimodel ensemble that efficiently projects time‐averaged sea cliff retreat over multidecadal time scales and large (50?km) spatial scales. The ensemble consists of five simple 1‐D models adapted from the literature that relate sea cliff retreat to wave impacts, sea level rise (SLR), historical cliff behavior, and cross‐shore profile geometry. Ensemble predictions are based on Monte Carlo simulations of each individual model, which account for the uncertainty of model parameters. The consensus of the individual models also weights uncertainty, such that uncertainty is greater when predictions from different models do not agree. A calibrated, but unvalidated, ensemble was applied to the 475‐km‐long coastline of Southern California (USA), with four SLR scenarios of 0.5, 0.93, 1.5, and 2?m by 2100. Results suggest that future retreat rates could increase relative to mean historical rates by more than twofold for the higher SLR scenarios, causing an average total land loss of 19–41?m by 2100. However, model uncertainty ranges from ±5 to 15?m, reflecting the inherent difficulties of projecting cliff retreat over multiple decades. To enhance ensemble performance, future work could include weighting each model by its skill in matching observations in different morphological settings. </abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> <div class="translation abstracttxt"> <span class="zhankaihshouqi fivelineshidden" id="abstract"> <span>机译：</span><abstract type =“main”xml：lang =“en”> <title type =“main”>抽象</ title> >海峭壁撤退率预计将加速21世纪海平面上升。在这里，我们开发了一种用于多模型集合的方法，可将时间平均的海悬崖撤退在多型时间尺度和大（＆50Ωkm）空间尺度上。该集合由五种简单的1-D型号组成，改编自文献，使海崖撤退与波浪影响，海平面上升（SLR），历史悬崖行为和交叉岸轮廓几何形状相关。集合预测是基于每个模型的蒙特卡罗模拟，该模型占模型参数的不确定性。各个模型的共识也重量不确定性，使得当不同模型的预测不同意时，不确定性更大。校准但未经验证的集合应用于加州南部（美国）的475公里长的海岸线，达到了0.5，0.93,1.5和2？M达到2100的四个单反情景。结果表明未来的撤退率可能会增加相对于较高单反情景的平均历史速率超过双重历史率，均由2100划分为19-41米的平均土地损失19-41米。然而，模型不确定性范围为±5至15？m，反映了悬崖的固有困难撤退多十年。为了提高集成性能，未来的工作可以通过其在不同形态设置中的匹配观测中加权每个模型。</ p> </ abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> <div class="record"> <h2 class="all_title" id="enpatent33" >著录项</h2> <ul> <li> <span class="lefttit">来源</span> <div style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"> <a href='/journal-foreign-34664/'>《Journal of geophysical research. Earth Surface: JGR》</a> <b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>2018年第7期</span><b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>共24页</span> </div> </li> <li> <div class="author"> <span class="lefttit">作者</span> <p id="fAuthorthree" class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi"> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Limber Patrick W.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Limber Patrick W.;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Barnard Patrick L.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Barnard Patrick L.;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Vitousek Sean&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Vitousek Sean;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Erikson Li H.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Erikson Li H.;</a> </p> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zkzz" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </li> <li> <div style="display: flex;"> <span class="lefttit">作者单位</span> <div style="position: relative;margin-left: 3px;max-width: 639px;"> <div class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi" id="fOrgthree"> <p>Pacific Coastal and Marine Science CenterU.S. Geological SurveySanta Cruz CA USA;</p> <p>Pacific Coastal and Marine Science CenterU.S. Geological SurveySanta Cruz CA USA;</p> <p>Pacific Coastal and Marine Science CenterU.S. Geological SurveySanta Cruz CA USA;</p> <p>Pacific Coastal and Marine Science CenterU.S. Geological SurveySanta Cruz CA USA;</p> </div> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zhdw" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> </li> <li > <span class="lefttit">收录信息</span> <span style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"></span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">原文格式</span> <span>PDF</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">正文语种</span> <span>eng</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">中图分类</span> <span>TP79:P3; </span> </li> <li class="antistop"> <span class="lefttit">关键词</span> <p style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;"> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=sea cliff retreat&option=203" rel="nofollow">sea cliff retreat;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=coastal management&option=203" rel="nofollow">coastal management;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=coastal erosion&option=203" rel="nofollow">coastal erosion;</a> </p> <div class="translation"> 机译：海崖撤退;沿海管理;沿海侵蚀; </div> </li> </ul> </div> </div> <div class="literature cardcommon"> <div class="similarity "> <h3 class="all_title" id="enpatent66">相似文献</h3> <div class="similaritytab clearfix"> <ul> <li class="active" >外文文献</li> <li >中文文献</li> <li >专利</li> </ul> </div> <div class="similarity_details"> <ul > <li> <div> <b>1. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/journal-foreign-detail/0704025586826.html">A Model Ensemble for Projecting Multidecadal Coastal Cliff Retreat During the 21st Century</a> <b>[J]</b> . <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Limber Patrick W.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Limber Patrick W.,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Barnard Patrick L.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Barnard Patrick L.,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Vitousek Sean&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Vitousek Sean,</a> <a href="/journal-foreign-34664/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_authcolor">Journal of geophysical research. Earth Surface: JGR .</a> <span>2018</span><span>,第7期</span> </span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：在21世纪突出了多渡沿海悬崖撤退的模型集合</span> </p> </li> <li> <div> <b>2. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/academic-journal-foreign_detail_thesis/0204117155805.html">Projected 21st century changes in snow water equivalent over Northern Hemisphere landmasses from the CMIP5 model ensemble</a> <b>[J]</b> . <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=H. X.Shi&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">H. X.Shi,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=C. H.Wang&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">C. H.Wang </a> <a href="/journal-foreign-30566/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_authcolor">The Cryosphere .</a> <span>2015</span><span>,第5期</span> </span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：CMIP5模型集合预测的北半球陆地上21世纪雪水当量的变化</span> </p> </li> <li> <div> <b>3. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/academic-journal-foreign_journal-the-american-water-resources-association_thesis/0204112136202.html">PROJECTIONS OF 21ST CENTURY SIERRA NEVADA LOCAL HYDROLOGIC FLOW COMPONENTS USING AN ENSEMBLE OF GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS</a> <b>[J]</b> . <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Darren L. Ficklin&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Darren L. Ficklin,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Iris T. Stewart&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Iris T. Stewart,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Edwin P. Maurer&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Edwin P. Maurer </a> <a href="/journal-foreign-792/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_authcolor">Journal of the American Water Resources Association .</a> <span>2012</span><span>,第6期</span> </span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：利用一般循环模型对21世纪内华达州塞拉内华达水文流动分量的投影</span> </p> </li> <li> <div> <b>4. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/academic-conference-foreign_meeting-282421_thesis/0705013753032.html">TOWARDS PROJECTING THE RETREAT OF CALIFORNIA’S COASTAL CLIFFS DURING THE 21st CENTURY</a> <b>[C]</b> . <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=PATRICK LIMBER&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">PATRICK LIMBER,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=PATRICK BARNARD&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">PATRICK BARNARD,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=CHERYL HAPKE&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">CHERYL HAPKE </a> <a href="/conference-foreign-282421/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_authcolor">International on Coastal Sediments Processes .</a> <span>2015</span> </span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：在21世纪将加利福尼亚沿海悬崖的撤退投影</span> </p> </li> <li> <div> <b>5. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/academic-degree-foreign_mphd_thesis/02061911353.html">Western U.S. Forest Carbon Balance in the 21st Century: Improving Projections with Improved Disturbance Monitoring and Modeling</a> <b>[D] </b> . <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Stenzel, Jeffrey E.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Stenzel, Jeffrey E. </a> <span>2021</span> </span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：21世纪美国森林碳均衡：改善了改善干扰监测和建模的预测</span> </p> </li> <li> <div> <b>6. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/academic-journal-foreign-pmc_detail_thesis/040002300765.html">Hydrological droughts in the 21st century hotspots and uncertainties from a global multimodel ensemble experiment</a> <b>[O] </b> . <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Christel Prudhomme&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Christel Prudhomme,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Ignazio Giuntoli&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Ignazio Giuntoli,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Emma L. Robinson&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Emma L. Robinson,</a> <span>2014</span> </span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：21世纪的水文干旱热点和来自全球多模式集合实验的不确定性</span> </p> </li> <li> <div> <b>7. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/open-access_resources_thesis/0100097726727.html ">Projected 21st century changes in snow water equivalent over Northern Hemisphere landmasses from the CMIP5 model ensemble</a> <b>[O] </b> . <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=H. X. Shi&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">H. X. Shi,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=C. H. Wang&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">C. H. Wang </a> <span>2015</span> </span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：从CmIp5模型集合预测21世纪北半球陆地上相当于雪水的变化</span> </p> </li> </ul> <ul style="display: none;"> <li> <div> <b>1. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/academic-journal-cn_chinese-times_thesis/0201212262695.html">偷私渡:一种说不出的痛--福建沿海偷私渡调查</a> <b>[J]</b> <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=崔晓林&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor"> . 崔晓林</a> <span> <a href="/journal-cn-729/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_authcolor"> . 时代潮 </a> </span> <span> . 2004</span><span>,第007期</span> </span> </div> </li> <li> <div> <b>2. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/academic-journal-cn_ocean-development-management_thesis/0201253843645.html">21世纪沿海呼唤法定海域界线——沿海省份行政管理海域划界的法律原则和方法初</a> <b>[J]</b> <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=贾宇&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor"> . 贾宇</a> <span> <a href="/journal-cn-4974/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_authcolor"> . 海洋开发与管理 </a> </span> <span> . 1999</span><span>,第004期</span> </span> </div> </li> <li> <div> <b>3. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/academic-journal-cn_china-railway-science_thesis/0201226039361.html">论《桥渡设计》与桥渡水工模型试验</a> <b>[J]</b> <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=许念曾&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor"> . 许念曾</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=拾兵&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">,拾兵</a> <span> <a href="/journal-cn-10186/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_authcolor"> . 中国铁道科学 </a> </span> <span> . 1993</span><span>,第001期</span> </span> </div> </li> <li> <div> <b>4. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/academic-journal-cn_marine-information_thesis/0201253899058.html">沿海地区多项举措引领海洋产业渡危机</a> <b>[J]</b> <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=王占坤&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor"> . 王占坤</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=朱凌&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">,朱凌</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=徐丛春&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">,徐丛春</a> <span> <a href="/journal-cn-4979/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_authcolor"> . 海洋信息 </a> </span> <span> . 2010</span><span>,第002期</span> </span> </div> </li> <li> <div> <b>5. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/academic-journal-cn_new-architecture_thesis/0201212096917.html">传统院落空间语汇范式在集合住宅中的再现策略——集合住宅中的院落单元模型初探</a> <b>[J]</b> <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=吕力&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor"> . 吕力</a> <span> <a href="/journal-cn-9646/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_authcolor"> . 新建筑 </a> </span> <span> . 2017</span><span>,第003期</span> </span> </div> </li> <li> <div> <b>6. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/academic-conference-cn_meeting-42787_thesis/020222674741.html">21世纪以来东部沿海地区城镇化和城市用地变化的关系研究</a> <b>[C]</b> <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=XU Lu&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor"> . XU Lu</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=徐璐&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">,徐璐</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=LIU Zhaode&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">,LIU Zhaode</a> <span> <a href="/conference-cn-42787/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_authcolor"> . “传承与创新”全国地理学研究生联合会成立十周年庆典暨第九届京区地理学研究生学术论坛 </a> <span> <span> . 2015</span> </span> </div> </li> <li> <div> <b>7. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/academic-degree-domestic_mphd_thesis/020314685832.html">蓄滞洪区洪水演进、撤退路线数学模型的研究与应用</a> <b>[A] </b> <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=管永宽&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor"> . 管永宽</a> <span> . 2011</span> </span> </div> </li> </ul> <ul style="display: none;"> <li> <div> <b>1. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/patent-detail/061204800457.html">产品集合中资源的分配以及建立产品、产品集合中资源的评估模型的方法和装置</a> <b>[P]</b> . <span> 中国专利： CN108122062B </span> <span> . 2021.11.26</span> </div> </li> <li> <div> <b>2. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/patent-detail/06120110636908.html">产品集合中资源的分配以及建立产品、产品集合中资源的评估模型的方法和装置</a> <b>[P]</b> . <span> 中国专利： CN108122062A </span> <span> . 2018-06-05</span> </div> </li> <li> <div> <b>3. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/patent-detail/06130408721872.html">21st Century 21st Century Modern Apartment with New Design</a> <b>[P]</b> . <span> 外国专利：  KR20170046061A </span> <span> . 2017-04-28</span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：二十一世纪二十一世纪新设计的现代公寓 </span> </p> </li> <li> <div> <b>4. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/patent-detail/06130449064970.html">Project Jubilee H2O (21st Century), 3</a> <b>[P]</b> . <span> 外国专利：  HN2001000004A </span> <span> . 2001-06-29</span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：银禧水电项目（21世纪），3 </span> </p> </li> <li> <div> <b>5. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/patent-detail/06130469851834.html">Coastal cliff protection equipment - comprises large oblong flexible viscous body laid along cliff foot</a> <b>[P]</b> . <span> 外国专利：  DE3604015A1 </span> <span> . 1987-08-13</span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：沿海悬崖防护设备-包括沿着悬崖脚铺设的大型长方形柔性粘性物体 </span> </p> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="theme cardcommon" style="overflow: auto;display:none"> <h3 class="all_title" id="enpatent55">相关主题</h3> <ul id="subject"> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="right rightcon"> <div class="details_img cardcommon clearfix" style="margin-bottom: 10px;display:none;" > </div> </div> </div> <div id="thesis_get_original1" class="downloadBth" style="bottom: 19px;z-index: 999;" onclick="ywcd('0704025586826','4',7,2,1,'',this,24)" class="delivery" prompt="010401" title="通过人工服务将文献原文发送至邮箱" >获取原文</div> <div class="journalsub-pop-up" style="display: none"> <div class="journal-sub"> <h2>期刊订阅</h2> <img src="https://cdn.zhangqiaokeyan.com/img/loginclose.png" alt="关闭" onclick="$('.journalsub-pop-up').hide()"> <p class="pardon">抱歉，该期刊暂不可订阅，敬请期待！</p> <p class="current">目前支持订阅全部北京大学中文核心（2020）期刊目录。</p> <div style="display: flex;margin-top: 69px;justify-content: space-between;"> <div class="no-sub" onclick="$('.journalsub-pop-up').hide()">暂不订阅</div> <div class="other-sub" onclick="continueSub('from=pc-detail')">继续订阅其他期刊</div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="right_btn"> <ul> <li class="gouwuche">  </li> <li class="yijian"> <a href="javascript:void(0);" onclick="link_analysis('/mycenter/auth/complaint.html',this)" title="意见反馈">意见反馈</a> </li> <li class="top"> <a href="javascript:scrollTo(0,0);" title="回到顶部">回到顶部</a> </li> <li class="shouye"> <a href="/" title="首页">回到首页</a> </li> </ul> </div> <div class="xllindexfooter"> <div class="xllindexfootercenter"> <div class="xllindexfooterleft left" > <div class="xllindexfooterleftli"> <ul> <li><a href="/about.html" title="关于掌桥">关于掌桥</a></li> <li><a href="/help/helpmap.html" title="资源导航">资源导航</a></li> <li><a href="/help/helpguide.html" title="新手指南">新手指南</a></li> <li><a href="/help/helpcenter.html" title="常见问题">常见问题</a></li> <li><a href="/sitemap.html" title="网站地图">网站地图</a></li> <li><a href="/help/helpcenter.html?type=9" title="版权声明">版权声明</a></li> </ul> </div> <div class="xllindexfooterleft"> <p class="xllindexfooterlefteamil">客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com</p> <div class="xllindexfooterlefttcp"> <div class="xllindexfooterpoliceiimg"></div> <div class="xllindexfooterpoliceispan"> <span>京公网安备：11010802029741号 </span> <span>ICP备案号：<a href="https://beian.miit.gov.cn" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="ICP备案号">京ICP备15016152号-6</a></span> <span>六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有</span> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="xllindexfooterright left"> <ul> <li> <p style="font-weight: bold;">客服微信</p> <div></div> </li> <li> <p style="font-weight: bold;">服务号</p> <div></div> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <span id="0704025586826down" data-source="7," data-out-id="BYIZ5RFEQdx0GtJcnvJgi3Wr2N77lZWw5JVQyVObOIDC0WgcPwIZnAatGSelbFtW," data-f-source-id="7" data-title="A Model Ensemble for Projecting Multidecadal Coastal Cliff Retreat During the 21st Century" data-price="20" data-site-name="" data-transnum="24" style="display:none;"></span> <input type="hidden" value="4" id="sourcetype"> <input type="hidden" value="34664" id="journalid"> <input type="hidden" value="1" id="inyn_provide_service_level"> <input type="hidden" value="https://cdn.zhangqiaokeyan.com" id="imgcdn"> <input type="hidden" value="1" id="isdeatail"> <input type="hidden" value="" id="syyn_indexed_database"> <input type="hidden" value="" id="servicetype"> <input type="hidden" id="pagename" value="A Model Ensemble for Projecting Multidecadal Coastal Cliff Retreat During the 21st Century"/> <input type="hidden" value="thesis_get_original" id="pageIdentification"> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://cdn.zhangqiaokeyan.com/js/jquery-1.12.4.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://cdn.zhangqiaokeyan.com/js/common/lwlh_ajax.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://cdn.zhangqiaokeyan.com/js/zq.js?v=5.7.8"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://cdn.zhangqiaokeyan.com/js/common/common.js?v=5.7.8"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://cdn.zhangqiaokeyan.com/js/jquery.cookie.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://cdn.zhangqiaokeyan.com/js/top.js?v=5.7.8"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://cdn.zhangqiaokeyan.com/js/common/tip.js?v=5.7.8"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://cdn.zhangqiaokeyan.com/js/common/login.js?v=5.7.8"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://cdn.zhangqiaokeyan.com/js/common/down.js?v=5.7.8"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://cdn.zhangqiaokeyan.com/js/common/search.js?v=5.7.8"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://cdn.zhangqiaokeyan.com/js/common/newmail.js?v=5.7.8"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://cdn.zhangqiaokeyan.com/js/searchtype.js?v=5.7.8"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://cdn.zhangqiaokeyan.com/js/user/regist.js?v=5.7.8"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://cdn.zhangqiaokeyan.com/js/zxs_solor/detail.js?v=5.7.8"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/statistics/static/pagecollection.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://cdn.zhangqiaokeyan.com/js/tj.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://cdn.zhangqiaokeyan.com/js/common/sse.js?v=5.7.8"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://cdn.zhangqiaokeyan.com/js/pushbaidu.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://cdn.zhangqiaokeyan.com/js/common/history.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://cdn.zhangqiaokeyan.com/js/util/cookie.js?v=5.7.8"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://cdn.zhangqiaokeyan.com/js/weipu/weipu.js?v=5.7.8"></script> </body> <script> $(function(){ var weiPuStatus = getCookie('WeiPuStatus'); if(weiPuStatus){ tipWeiPuStatus(weiPuStatus); delCookie('WeiPuStatus'); } getFacetKeywordVoInId(); var sourcetype = $("#sourcetype").val(); var inyn_provide_service_level = $("#inyn_provide_service_level").val(); if((sourcetype ==1||sourcetype==4)&&inyn_provide_service_level!=4){ getJournal(); } }) </script> </html>