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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Geophysical Research, C. Oceans: JGR >Sea‐Level Trend Uncertainty With Pacific Climatic Variability and Temporally‐Correlated Noise
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Sea‐Level Trend Uncertainty With Pacific Climatic Variability and Temporally‐Correlated Noise

机译:海平趋势与太平洋气候变异性和时间相关噪声的不确定性

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摘要

Abstract >Recent studies have identified climatic drivers of the east‐west see‐saw of Pacific Ocean satellite altimetry era sea level trends and a number of sea‐level trend and acceleration assessments attempt to account for this. We investigate the effect of Pacific climate variability, together with temporally‐correlated noise, on linear trend error estimates and determine new time‐of‐emergence (ToE) estimates across the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Sea‐level trend studies often advocate the use of auto‐regressive (AR) noise models to adequately assess formal uncertainties, yet sea level often exhibits colored but non‐AR(1) noise. Standard error estimates are over‐ or under‐estimated by an AR(1) model for much of the Indo‐Pacific sea level. Allowing for PDO and ENSO variability in the trend estimate only reduces standard errors across the tropics and we find noise characteristics are largely unaffected. Of importance for trend and acceleration detection studies, formal error estimates remain on average up to 1.6 times those from an AR(1) model for long‐duration tide gauge data. There is an even chance that the observed trend from the satellite altimetry era exceeds the noise in patches of the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans and the south‐west and north‐east Pacific gyres. By including climate indices in the trend analysis, the time it takes for the observed linear sea‐level trend to emerge from the noise reduces by up to 2 decades. </abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> <div class="translation abstracttxt"> <span class="zhankaihshouqi fivelineshidden" id="abstract"> <span>机译:</span><abstract type =“main”> <标题类型=“main”>抽象</ title> >最近的研究已经确定了东西部卫星卫星高度时代趋势和一个数字的东西卫星海平趋势和加速度评估试图占据这一点。我们调查了太平洋气候变异性的影响,以及时间相关噪声,线性趋势误差估计和确定印度和太平洋的新的出现时间(脚趾)估计。海平趋势研究往往倡导使用自动回归(AR)噪声模型以充分评估正式的不确定性,但海平面通常呈现彩色但非AR(1)噪音。标准错误估计由AR(1)模型用于大部分地区海平面的AR(1)模型过度估计。允许PDO和ENSO可变性在趋势估计中仅降低了热带地区的标准误差,并且我们发现噪音特性主要不受影响。对于趋势和加速度检测研究的重要性,正式的错误估计仍然保持平均高达持续时间潮尺数据的AR(1)模型的1.6倍。卫星Altimetry时代的观察到趋势甚至可能超过了热带太平洋和印度洋和西南和东北太平洋的斑块的噪音。通过在趋势分析中包括气候指数,观察到的线性海平趋势从噪声中出现的时间最多可降低2数十年。</ p> </摘要> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> <div class="record"> <h2 class="all_title" id="enpatent33" >著录项</h2> <ul> <li> <span class="lefttit">来源</span> <div style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"> <a href='/journal-foreign-34643/'>《Journal of Geophysical Research, C. Oceans: JGR》</a> <b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>2018年第3期</span><b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>共16页</span> </div> </li> <li> <div class="author"> <span class="lefttit">作者</span> <p id="fAuthorthree" class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi"> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Royston Sam&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Royston Sam;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Watson Christopher S.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Watson Christopher S.;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Legrésy Beno?t&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Legrésy Beno?t;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=King Matt A.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">King Matt A.;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Church John A.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Church John A.;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Bos Machiel S.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Bos Machiel S.;</a> </p> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zkzz" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </li> <li> <div style="display: flex;"> <span class="lefttit">作者单位</span> <div style="position: relative;margin-left: 3px;max-width: 639px;"> <div class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi" id="fOrgthree"> <p>Discipline of Geography and Spatial SciencesUniversity of TasmaniaHobart TAS Australia;</p> <p>Discipline of Geography and Spatial SciencesUniversity of TasmaniaHobart TAS Australia;</p> <p>CSIRO Oceans and AtmosphereHobart TAS Australia;</p> <p>Discipline of Geography and Spatial SciencesUniversity of TasmaniaHobart TAS Australia;</p> <p>Climate Change Research CentreUniversity of New South WalesSydney NSW Australia;</p> <p>Space and Earth Geodetic Analysis LabUniversity of Beira InteriorCovilh? Portugal;</p> </div> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zhdw" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> </li> <li > <span class="lefttit">收录信息</span> <span style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"></span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">原文格式</span> <span>PDF</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">正文语种</span> <span>eng</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">中图分类</span> <span><a href="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/clc/163.html" title="地球物理学">地球物理学;</a></span> </li> <li class="antistop"> <span class="lefttit">关键词</span> <p style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;"> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=sea level&option=203" rel="nofollow">sea level;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=trend error&option=203" rel="nofollow">trend error;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=uncertainty&option=203" rel="nofollow">uncertainty;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=climate variability&option=203" rel="nofollow">climate variability;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=temporal correlation&option=203" rel="nofollow">temporal correlation;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=noise&option=203" rel="nofollow">noise;</a> </p> <div class="translation"> 机译:海平面;趋势误差;不确定性;气候变异性;时间相关;噪音; </div> </li> </ul> </div> </div> <div class="literature cardcommon"> <div class="similarity "> <h3 class="all_title" id="enpatent66">相似文献</h3> <div class="similaritytab clearfix"> <ul> <li class="active" >外文文献</li> <li >中文文献</li> <li >专利</li> </ul> </div> <div class="similarity_details"> <ul > <li> <div> <b>1. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/journal-foreign-detail/0704025579396.html">Sea‐Level Trend Uncertainty With Pacific Climatic Variability and Temporally‐Correlated Noise</a> <b>[J]</b> . <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Royston Sam&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Royston Sam,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Watson Christopher S.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Watson Christopher S.,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Legrésy Beno?t&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Legrésy Beno?t,</a> <a href="/journal-foreign-34643/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_authcolor">Journal of Geophysical Research, C. 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