Rapid shelf‐wide cooling response of a stratified coastal ocean to hurricanes

Seroka Greg; Miles Travis; Xu Yi; Kohut Josh; Schofield Oscar; Glenn Scott

摘要

Abstract >Large uncertainty in the predicted intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) persists compared to the steadily improving skill in the predicted TC tracks. This intensity uncertainty has its most significant implications in the coastal zone, where TC impacts to populated shorelines are greatest. Recent studies have demonstrated that rapid ahead‐of‐eye‐center cooling of a stratified coastal ocean can have a significant impact on hurricane intensity forecasts. Using observation‐validated, high‐resolution ocean modeling, the stratified coastal ocean cooling processes observed in two U.S. Mid‐Atlantic hurricanes were investigated: Hurricane Irene (2011)—with an inshore Mid‐Atlantic Bight (MAB) track during the late summer stratified coastal ocean season—and Tropical Storm Barry (2007)—with an offshore track during early summer. For both storms, the critical ahead‐of‐eye‐center depth‐averaged force balance across the entire MAB shelf included an onshore wind stress balanced by an offshore pressure gradient. This resulted in onshore surface currents opposing offshore bottom currents that enhanced surface to bottom current shear and turbulent mixing across the thermocline, resulting in the rapid cooling of the surface layer ahead‐of‐eye‐center. Because the same baroclinic and mixing processes occurred for two storms on opposite ends of the track and seasonal stratification envelope, the response appears robust. It will be critical to forecast these processes and their implications for a wide range of future storms using realistic 3‐D coupled atmosphere‐ocean models to lower the uncertainty in predictions of TC intensities and impacts and enable coastal populations to better respond to increasing rapid intensification threats in an era of rising sea levels. </abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> <div class="translation abstracttxt"> <span class="zhankaihshouqi fivelineshidden" id="abstract"> <span>机译：</span><abstract xmlns =“http://www.wiley.com/namespaces/wiley”type =“main”> <标题类型=“main”>抽象</ title> 与预测的TC轨道中的稳定改善的技巧相比，热带气旋（TCS）的预测强度的巨大不确定性。这种强度的不确定性在沿海地区具有最重要的影响，其中TC对填充的海岸线的影响最大。最近的研究表明，分层沿海海洋的快速上中心冷却可能对飓风强度预测产生重大影响。使用观察验证的高分辨率海洋建模，调查了两个美国中大西洋中飓风中的分层沿海冷却过程：飓风伊里·（2011） - 在夏季深层分层期间，在大西洋中大西洋（MAB）轨道。沿海海洋季节和热带风暴巴里（2007） - 初夏的海上赛道。对于两个暴风雨，整个MAB货架上的临界前部深度平均力平衡包括在海上压力梯度平衡的陆上风力应力。这导致血管底部电流相反的近海底部电流，使得增强表面到底部电流剪切和湍流混合穿过热水下流，导致表面层的快速冷却了眼睛前沿。由于在轨道和季节分层包络的两端发生了相同的曲金和混合过程，因此响应似乎是稳健的。预测这些流程和他们对广泛的未来风暴的影响至关重要的是使用现实的3-D耦合的大气模型来降低TC强度预测的不确定性，并使沿海人群更好地应对增加的快速增强海平面上升时代的威胁。</ p> </摘要> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> <div class="record"> <h2 class="all_title" id="enpatent33" >著录项</h2> <ul> <li> <span class="lefttit">来源</span> <div style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"> <a href='/journal-foreign-34643/'>《Journal of Geophysical Research, C. Oceans: JGR》</a> <b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>2017年第6期</span><b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>共23页</span> </div> </li> <li> <div class="author"> <span class="lefttit">作者</span> <p id="fAuthorthree" class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi"> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Seroka Greg&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Seroka Greg;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Miles Travis&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Miles Travis;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Xu Yi&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Xu Yi;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Kohut Josh&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Kohut Josh;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Schofield Oscar&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Schofield Oscar;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Glenn Scott&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Glenn Scott;</a> </p> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zkzz" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </li> <li> <div style="display: flex;"> <span class="lefttit">作者单位</span> <div style="position: relative;margin-left: 3px;max-width: 639px;"> <div class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi" id="fOrgthree"> <p>Center for Ocean Observing Leadership Department of Marine and Coastal Sciences School of Environmental and Biological SciencesRutgers UniversityNew Brunswick New Jersey USA;</p> <p>Center for Ocean Observing Leadership Department of Marine and Coastal Sciences School of Environmental and Biological SciencesRutgers UniversityNew Brunswick New Jersey USA;</p> <p>State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal ResearchEast China Normal UniversityShanghai China;</p> <p>Center for Ocean Observing Leadership Department of Marine and Coastal Sciences School of Environmental and Biological SciencesRutgers UniversityNew Brunswick New Jersey USA;</p> <p>Center for Ocean Observing Leadership Department of Marine and Coastal Sciences School of Environmental and Biological SciencesRutgers UniversityNew Brunswick New Jersey USA;</p> <p>Center for Ocean Observing Leadership Department of Marine and Coastal Sciences School of Environmental and Biological SciencesRutgers UniversityNew Brunswick New Jersey USA;</p> </div> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zhdw" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> </li> <li > <span class="lefttit">收录信息</span> <span style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"></span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">原文格式</span> <span>PDF</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">正文语种</span> <span>eng</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">中图分类</span> <span><a href="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/clc/163.html" title="地球物理学">地球物理学;</a></span> </li> <li class="antistop"> <span class="lefttit">关键词</span> <p style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;"> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=hurricanes&option=203" rel="nofollow">hurricanes;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=tropical cyclones&option=203" rel="nofollow">tropical cyclones;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=coastal oceanography&option=203" rel="nofollow">coastal oceanography;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=ocean modeling&option=203" rel="nofollow">ocean modeling;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=gliders&option=203" rel="nofollow">gliders;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=continental shelf processes&option=203" rel="nofollow">continental shelf processes;</a> </p> <div class="translation"> 机译：飓风;热带气旋;沿海海洋学;海洋建模;滑翔机;大陆架流程; 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