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Yield curve forecast combinations based on bond portfolio performance

机译:基于债券组合性能的产量曲线预测组合

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Abstract xml:id="for2476-para-0001">We propose an economically motivated forecast combination strategy in which model weights are related to portfolio returns obtained by a given forecast model. An empirical application based on an optimal mean–variance bond portfolio problem is used to highlight the advantages of the proposed approach with respect to combination methods based on statistical measures of forecast accuracy. We compute average net excess returns, standard deviation, and the Sharpe ratio of bond portfolios obtained with nine alternative yield curve specifications, as well as with 12 different forecast combination strategies. Return‐based forecast combination schemes clearly outperformed approaches based on statistical measures of forecast accuracy in terms of economic criteria. Moreover, return‐based approaches that dynamically select only the model with highest weight each period and discard all other models delivered even better results, evidencing not only the advantages of trimming forecast combinations but also the ability of the proposed approach to detect best‐performing models. To analyze the robustness of our results, different levels of risk aversion and a different dataset are considered. </abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> <div class="translation abstracttxt"> <span class="zhankaihshouqi fivelineshidden" id="abstract"> <span>机译:</span><abstract xmlns =“http://www.wiley.com/namespaces/wiley”type =“main”xml:id =“for2476-abs-0001”XML:lang =“en”> <标题类型=“main”>抽象</ title> XML:ID =“for2476-para-0001”>我们提出了一种经济动作的预测组合策略,其中模型权重与由给定的预测模型获得的投资组合返回相关。基于最优平均方差债券组合问题的经验应用程序用于突出基于预测精度统计测量的组合方法的提出方法的优点。我们计算平均净过剩返回,标准偏差,以及用九种替代产量曲线规范获得的债券组合的锐利比,以及12种不同的预测组合策略。基于返回的预测组合计划在经济标准方面,基于预测准确性的统计措施明显优势。此外,基于返回的方法,每个时段的动态选择模型,并丢弃所有其他型号的更好的结果,不仅提出了修剪预测组合的优势,而且还有能力检测最佳性能的方法。要分析结果的稳健性,考虑了不同的风险厌恶程度和不同的数据集。</ p> </摘要> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> <div class="record"> <h2 class="all_title" id="enpatent33" >著录项</h2> <ul> <li> <span class="lefttit">来源</span> <div style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"> <a href='/journal-foreign-34460/'>《Journal of Forecasting》</a> <b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>2018年第1期</span><b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>共19页</span> </div> </li> <li> <div class="author"> <span class="lefttit">作者</span> <p id="fAuthorthree" class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi"> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Caldeira Jo?o F.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Caldeira Jo?o F.;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Moura Guilherme V.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Moura Guilherme V.;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Santos André A. P.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Santos André A. P.;</a> </p> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zkzz" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </li> <li> <div style="display: flex;"> <span class="lefttit">作者单位</span> <div style="position: relative;margin-left: 3px;max-width: 639px;"> <div class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi" id="fOrgthree"> <p>Department of EconomicsUniversidade Federal do Rio Grande do SulPorto Alegre RS Brazil;</p> <p>Department of EconomicsUniversidade Federal de Santa CatarinaFlorianópolis SC Brazil;</p> <p>Department of EconomicsUniversidade Federal de Santa CatarinaFlorianópolis SC Brazil;</p> </div> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zhdw" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> </li> <li > <span class="lefttit">收录信息</span> <span style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"></span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">原文格式</span> <span>PDF</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">正文语种</span> <span>eng</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">中图分类</span> <span><a href="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/clc/3359.html" title="未来学">未来学;</a></span> </li> <li class="antistop"> <span class="lefttit">关键词</span> <p style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;"> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=bond returns&option=203" rel="nofollow">bond returns;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=forecast combinations&option=203" rel="nofollow">forecast combinations;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=portfolio optimization&option=203" rel="nofollow">portfolio optimization;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=yield curve&option=203" rel="nofollow">yield curve;</a> </p> <div class="translation"> 机译:债券返回;预测组合;投资组合优化;产量曲线; </div> </li> </ul> </div> </div> <div class="literature cardcommon"> <div class="similarity "> <h3 class="all_title" id="enpatent66">相似文献</h3> <div class="similaritytab clearfix"> <ul> <li class="active" >外文文献</li> <li >中文文献</li> <li >专利</li> </ul> </div> <div class="similarity_details"> <ul > <li> <div> <b>1. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/journal-foreign-detail/0704025548478.html">Yield curve forecast combinations based on bond portfolio performance</a> <b>[J]</b> . <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Caldeira Jo?o F.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Caldeira Jo?o F.,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Moura Guilherme V.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Moura Guilherme V.,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Santos André A. 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