Impact of the Montreal Protocol on Antarctic Surface Mass Balance and Implications for Global Sea Level Rise

摘要

The Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer, adopted in 1987, is an international treaty designed to protect the ozone layer by phasing out emissions of chlorofluorocarbons and other ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). A growing body of scientific evidence now suggests that the implementation of the Montreal Protocol will have significant effects on climate over the next several decades, both by enabling stratospheric ozone recovery and by decreasing atmospheric concentrations of ODSs, which are greenhouse gases. Here, using a state-of-the-art chemistry-climate model, the Community Earth System Model (Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model) [CESM(WACCM)], it is shown that the Montreal Protocol, through its impact on atmospheric ODS concentrations, leads to a substantial decrease in Antarctic surface mass balance (SMB) over the period 2006-65 relative to a hypothetical "World Avoided'' scenario in which the Montreal Protocol has not been implemented. This SMB decrease produces an additional 25 mm of global sea level rise (GSLR) by the year 2065 relative to the present day. It is found, however, that the additional GSLR resulting from the relative decrease in Antarctic SMB is more than offset by a reduction in ocean thermal expansion, leading to a net mitigation of future GSLR due to the Montreal Protocol.