The Modulating Influence of Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperatures on Australian Region Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Counts

摘要

The Australian region seasonal tropical cyclone count (TCC) maintained a robust statistical relationship with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with skillful forecasts of above (below) average TCC during La Nina (El Nino) years from 1969 until about 1998, weakening thereafter. The current study identifies an additional climate driver that mitigates the loss of predictive skill for Australian TCC after about 1998. It is found that the seasonal Australian TCC is strongly modulated by a southwest-to-northeast-oriented dipole in Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs), referred to here as the transverse Indian Ocean dipole (TIOD). The TIOD emerges as the leading mode of detrended Indian Ocean SSTAs in the Southern Hemisphere during late winter and spring. Active (inactive) TC seasons are linked to positive (negative) TIOD phases, most notably during August-October immediately preceding the TC season, when SSTAs northwest of Australia, in the northeast pole of the TIOD, are positive (negative).