EPS Estimates for Publicly Traded Food Companies: Is There Value Beyond One Quarter?

摘要

Analysts' performances in forecasting earnings per share (EPS) for the one-, two- and three-quarter-ahead time horizons are evaluated. The focus is on 11 companies involved with food processing and retailing. The forecast errors are normalized using mean absolute scaled errors and then evaluated for unique information at each forecast horizon using the direct test of Vuchelen and Gutierrez (2005). The results show consensus earnings forecasts provide unique information at each horizon, although thereis some evidence of degradation with three-quarter-ahead forecasts. Agribusiness managers may find this forward-looking information valuable for business planning.