The 'high infant mortality' trap': the relationship between birth intervals and infant mortality - the example of two localities in Bohemia between the 17th and 19th centuries

摘要

The article further develops the term 'high infant mortality trap' as an expression of the concept supposing a mutual relationship between short average birth intervals (corresponding usually to high fertility) and high level of infant mortality. This mutual relationship is among other a consequence of the effect of the same or similar factors standing behind both processes (fertility, infant mortality). In the paper, this relationship is evaluated through the effect of the selected explanatory variables on the probability of infant death (using the Binomial logistic regression) as well as length of birth-birth intervals or time duration from the infant death to the successive birth (using the Cox regression). In the analytical part, the concept is evaluated using data from two localities in Bohemia (today the Czech Republic). The localities differ according the socio-economic as well as ethnic characteristics, what might have affected also the demographic behaviour. The area of the Central Europe has not been fully described in the historical demographic works yet, so this study brings the possibility of comparison of this area with other areas already studied. Particular parts of the analysis prove the assumption of the existence of the high infant mortality trap before the onset of demographic transition.