World Trade Wars: Scenario Calculations of Consequences

摘要

The work is a continuation of the article published in the journal Vestnik Rossiiskoi Akademii Nauk (2019, No. 7) in which a review of tools for quantifying the effects of trade wars was given. This article presents the results of calculations of the consequences of several scenarios of the trade war of the United States and its European allies against Russia and China. These results were obtained using a software package that considers more than 100 countries of the world, and the subjects of each of the countries interact with each other through trade and financial relations. The complex includes a simulator of socio-economic dynamics, built by experts from China. It acts as an external contour for a number of models of the socio-economic system of the Eurasian continent developed at the RAS Central Economics and Mathematics Institute in 2016-2018. The calculated scenarios envisage an increase in import duties on all goods from China and Russia delivered to the United States and EU countries, as well as symmetrical responses. A separate consideration is the imitation of restrictive measures in relation to all Russian export goods. It also analyzes trade relations between Russia and the rest of the world and examines the benefits of an agent-based approach for modeling socio-economic systems.