Major Risks, Uncertain Outcomes: Making Ensemble Forecasts Work for Multiple Audiences

摘要

When extreme river levels are possible in a community, effective communication of weather and hydrologic forecasts is critical to protecting life and property. Residents, emergency personnel, and water resource managers need to make timely decisions about how and when to prepare. Uncertainty in forecasting is a critical component of this decision-making, but often poses a confounding factor for public and professional understanding of forecast products. A new suite of products from the National Weather Service's Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System (HEFS) provides short- and long-range forecasts, ranging from 6 h to 1 yr, and shows uncertainty in hydrologic forecasts. To understand how various audiences use and interpret ensemble forecasts showing a range of hydrologic forecast possibilities, a research project was conducted using scenario-based focus groups and surveys with community residents, emergency managers, and water resource managers in West Virginia and Maryland. The research assessed the utility of the HEFS products, identified barriers to proper understanding of the products, and suggested modifications to product design that could improve the understandability and accessibility for a range of users. There was a difference between the residential users' reactions to the HEFS compared to the emergency managers and water resource managers, with the public reacting less favorably to all versions. The emergency managers preferred the revised HEFS products but had suggestions for additional changes, which were incorporated. Features such as interactive text boxes and forecaster's notes further enhanced the utility and understandability of the products.