Short and long-term prospects for consumption of fish

摘要

If real prices for fish remain at the levels they had attained by 1999, in the year 2050 demand for fish and shellfish as food could be of the order of 270 million tons (live weight equivalent) per year. If producers were able to supply these quantities consumption would rise by 176% over this 50-year period. To meet the demand supply would have to expand at the rate of 2.1% annually; but, a review of the pattern of population growth - and of historical patterns of increases in per capita consumption of fish - shows that annual growth in the volume of fish demanded is likely to be largest in the coming two decades, and then to taper off. Will producers be able to deliver?