The trends in global drivers of soybean production (e.g. demand, technology, climate) strongly suggest that deforestation of tropical dry ecosystems will continue, despite changes in local conditions. Although the Argentina economy has fluctuated greatly during the last 10 y (e.g. gross domestic product annual change varied between +8 percent and -20 percent; 19), this local driver has had little or no effect compared with the global drivers. Moreover, other global factors, such as increased meat consumption in developing countries and mad cow disease in the United States, will contribute to an increasing demand for soybean products. Soybean exports have played an important role in the recovery of the Argentine economy following the 2002 financial crisis. Along with increased income for growers and associated industries, the government has benefited directly from a 20 percent export tax (reten-ciones). The 2003/2004 soybean crop is estimated to be approximately 13 million ha, with an average of 2.6 tons ha~(-1). If the price continues above 200 US dollars ton~(-1), 20 percent would represent more than 1 350 000 000 US dollars for the Argentine government. If current global factors do not change and the economy of Argentina continues to base its growth on soybean exports, millions of hectares of semiarid wildlands likely will disappear during the coming decades.
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