Can Apparent Stress be Used to Time-Dependent Seismic Hazard Assessment or Earthquake Forecast? An Ongoing Approach in China

摘要

The approach in China since the last 1.5 decade for using apparent stress in time-dependent seismic hazard assessment or earthquake forecast is summarized. Retrospective case studies observe that apparent stress exhibits short-term increase, with time scale of several months, before moderate to strong earthquakes in a large area surrounding the 'target earthquake'. Apparent stress is also used to estimate the tendency of aftershock activity. The concept relating apparent stress indirectly to stress level is used to understand the properties of some 'precursory' anomalies. Meanwhile, different opinions were reported. Problems in the calculation also existed for some cases. Moreover, retrospective studies have the limitation in their significance as compared to forward forecast test. Nevertheless, this approach, seemingly uniquely carried out in a large scale in mainland China, provides the earthquake catalogs for the predictive analysis of seismicity with an additional degree of freedom, deserving a systematic review and reflection.