Spatial-Temporal Evolution of Drought Characteristics Over Hungary Between 1961 and 2010

摘要

Historically, Hungary has witnessed numerous waves of drought episodes, causing significant agro-economic loss. Over the recent decades, the intensity, severity and frequency of drought occurrence have dramatically shifted, with undisputable upward tendencies across many areas. Thus, the main aim of this study was to characterize drought trends, intensity and duration over Hungary during 1961-2010. To attain the study goals, the present analyses utilized climate datasets obtained from Climate of the Carpathian region project-CARPATCLIM for 1045 gridded points covering entire Hungary. Meanwhile, a well-known drought index, namely; standardized precipitation index (SPI) and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) at 12-month timescales were employed for drought characterization. Furthermore, the sub-set regions of drought in Hungary were identified using S-mode of the principal component analysis. The Mann-Kendall trend test analysis showed a significant negative SPI-12 trend (P < 0.05) in 11.5% of the total points over the western part of Hungary. In comparison, 43.2% of the total numbers of the SPEI-12 time series gridded points showed a significant negative trend (P < 0.05) over the similar locale. However, both indices' trends highlighted the fact that the northeastern region is less sensitive to drought despite experiencing the highest of total drought duration. Results also suggested that the SPI-12 indicates that no significant change can be detected from 1961 to 2010 over Hungary. In contrast, the SPEI-12 exhibits that the drought waves that hit Hungary were more pronounced, with a significant positive (P < 0.05) trend of + 1.4% per decade being detected for the area affected by very extreme drought. All in all, this study is one of the primary steps toward a better understanding of drought vulnerability assessment in Hungary.