Multi-Parametric Climatological Analysis Associated with Global Significant Volcanic Eruptions During 2002-2017

摘要

In this work, we search for physical and chemical climatological anomalies preceding major volcanic explosive eruptions (mostly VEI-Volcanic Explosivity Index 4+) occurred from 2002 to 2017, by applying two specific algorithms, i.e. CAPRI and MEANS. The former algorithm has been already used for a multi-climatological analysis of the Amatrice-Norcia 2016-2017 earthquake preparatory phase (Piscini et al., In: Pure Appl Geophys, 174:3673-3688, 2017). Here we analyse some climatological parameters for a three-month period before each volcanic explosive eruption then we compare the behavior with the typical one of the past. The analysis is applied to an area with dimensions comparable to the volcano crater, because it is the increase of the magmatic camera activity that, in turn, can cause a temperature increase whose evidence could be detected at the surface (Slezin, In: J Volcanol Geotherm Res, 122(1-2), 7-50, 2003), while the use of a larger area would provide a greater probability of occurrence of other events (e.g., other volcano eruption, meteorological storms, etcetera). Therefore, a smaller area of study reduces the risk to get "false alarms". In particular, we considered thermal skin temperature, (skt) and total water vapour content (tcwv) from ECMWF European centre and aerosol optical thickness (AOT), sulphur dioxide (SO2) and atmospheric dimethylsulphide (DMS) are obtained from NASA MERRA-2 Global Modeling and Assimilation data archive. The latter compound was added in the analysis to check the validity of the method, since we did not expect significant anomalies from this parameter. The models above described are used for their temporal-spatial completeness, allowing performing time series analyses and for a real time monitoring on a global scale. By simultaneous analysis, we found for almost all volcanic eruptions some anomalies in about all analyzed parameters that precede by 75 days to 20 days the explosion. These anomalies are not always simultaneous, bu