Forecasting the timeframe of 2019-nCoV and human cells interaction with reverse engineering

摘要

In December 2019, an atypical pneumonia invaded the city of Wuhan, China, and the causative agent of this disease turned out to be a new coronavirus. In January 2020, the World Health Organization named the new coronavirus 2019-nCoV and subsequently it is referred to as SARS-CoV2 and the related disease as CoViD-19 (Lai et al., 2020). Very quickly, the epidemic led to a pandemic and it is now a worldwide emergency requiring the creation of new antiviral therapies and a related vaccine. The purpose of this article is to review and investigate further the molecular mechanism by which the SARS-CoV2 virus infection proceeds via the formation of a hetero-trimer between its protein S, the ACE2 receptor and the B0AT1 protein, which is the "entry receptor" for the infection process involving membrane fusion (Li et al., 2003). A reverse engineering process uses the formalism of the Hill function to represent the functions related to the dynamics of the biochemical interactions of the viral infection process. Then, using a logical evaluation of viral density that measures the rate at which the cells are hijacked by the virus (and they provide a place for the virus to replicate) and considering the "time delay" given by the interaction between cell and virus, the expected duration of the incubation period is predicted. The conclusion is that the density of the virus varies from the "exposure time" to the "interaction time" (virus-cells). This model can be used both to evaluate the infectious condition and to analyze the incubation period.