Cost benefit analysis of automatic lameness detection systems in dairy herds: A dynamic programming approach

摘要

Epidemiological data establish that lameness is second only to mastitis as the dairy industry's most prevalent and costly animal welfare issue. Using an automatic lameness detection (ALD) system in which continuous, accurate detection is coupled with proper treatment, is key for reducing economic losses due to lameness. It is reasonable to assume that the cost of lameness would vary with its severity. Therefore, our first objective was to estimate the cost of different lameness severity levels as a function of milk production, lameness risk, conception probability, and treatment cost using a dynamic programming (DP) model. Our second objective was to conduct a cost benefit analysis for ALD systems which can reduce production losses through early detection and treatment of lameness, when compared to visual-detection (VD; i.e., performed by humans) systems. The default production loss parameters for the VD system used as inputs to the DP model were either sourced from the literature or were estimated based on data from a field trial. The production loss parameters for the ALD system used as inputs to the DP model were based on extrapolations of parameter values used for the VD system. The profit per present cow per year under assumed expenses and revenues decreased from $426.05 (when lameness incidence was assumed to be 0%) to $389.69 when lameness incidence was 19.5 %. Out of the 19.5 % lameness incidence in our default scenario, 9.8 % were moderate cases and 9.7 % were severe cases. Average cost of lameness was $36.36 at 19.5 % incidence. Average cost of lameness increased with increased incidence and was respectively $82.05, $195.05, and $286.87 at the low, medium, and high incidence scenarios. We used an operational framework which compared the lameness costs between the VD and ALD systems with 25 %, 50 % and 75 % net avoided costs (NAC) for the 10 year lifespan of the ALD system, at default, low, medium and high lameness incidence scenarios. The net return per cow per year from using an ALD system over a VD system was $13, at low incidence and 25 % NAC. The net return per cow per year for the ALD system was as high as $99 at high incidence and 75 % NAC. Out of 351 (3 system prices, 3 system efficiencies, 3 levels of lameness incidence and 13 different herd sizes) scenarios tested, 295 resulted in a net profit within the system lifespan of 10 years, thus justifying the investment in ALD systems.