PE imports from the US gaining steam/Impact on European producers' margins/Vast majority of new capacity still to come/Noticeable decline in imports to EU since January 2019

摘要

European imports of low pressure process PE from the US ended 2018 on a strong note,show the latest Eurostat(Luxembourg;www.ec.europa.eu/eurostat)data.Nearly 155,000 t of high-density grades reached Europe,compared to 66,500 t in 2017.Imports of LLDPE stood at 120,000 t,up nearly 30%.The increase accelerated in the second half of 2018.This might only be the start of a new wave of imports.In the past five years,the US added 3.7m t/y of PE production capacity as the country's shale gas developments began operation,but the majority of additional polymer facilities is still under construction.From 2020-2024,the US-already the world's top PE producer-will add another 8m t/y to its 19.8m t/y of installed capacity.China is second with 18m t/y.The upswing was bolstered by the US-China trade war.China imposed hefty tariffs on HDPE and LLDPE from the US,and warehouses at US ports have since been overflowing.China might have tried to cover shortages from other sources,including the Middle East.However,trade data do not suggest that European imports from Saudi Arabia-by far the largest PE producer in that region-were impacted severely in 2018.About 80,000 t of HDPE and LLDPE reached European shores each month-much more than brought in from the US.