Vienna meeting may be no waltz for opec+

摘要

Early indications suggest that Opec+ may extend its output deal beyond March 2020 when it meets on 5-6 December. But 2020 non-Opec supply growth and demand uncertainty could prompt deeper cuts, and reopen old wounds around compliance. The existing production accord runs to the end of March 2020 and targets a 1.2mn b/d reduction for Opec members and the 10 participating non-Opec producers. Voluntary compliance has been patchy throughout 2019 — Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Angola have overperformed, while Iraq and Russia have signifcantly underperformed. Iran, Libya and Venezuela are exempt, but struggling to maintain supply.